JOE looks ahead to a massive European weekend for the Irish provinces, which includes Munster’s clash with the Ospreys and the return of Leinster coach Joe Schmidt to a familiar setting.
The fixtures
Heineken Cup
Ulster v Bath Saturday 1.30pm (Live on Sky Sports Red Button)
Munster v Ospreys Sunday 1pm (Live on Sky Sports One)
Clermont Auvergne v Leinster Sunday 4pm (Live on Sky Sports Red Button)
Amlin Challenge Cup
Harlequins v Connacht Sunday 5.45pm (Live on Sky Sports Two)
The previews
Ulster v Bath
Considering the form of both of these sides in recent weeks, Ulster’s double-header with Bath gives them a real opportunity to qualify for the knockout stages, whether it is as pool winners or, more realistically, as one of the best placed runners-up, with Biarritz looking likely to finish top of the pile in Pool Four.
Brian McLaughlin’s side have recuperated after a hairy end to October which saw them lose three on the trot and have enjoyed successive away victories over Benetton Treviso and Cardiff Blues in the Magners League, not easy places to go by any means. Bath, in contrast, have been on a miserable run. They are without a win in five games and are currently languishing in ninth place in the Aviva Premiership and have only had a victory over pool minnows Aironi in the Heineken Cup to shout about since the end of September.
McLaughlin will have to do without the in-form Craig Gilroy – who is not ERC registered, this weekend, but will have Irish internationals Stephen Ferris, Andrew Trimble and Tom Court back in tow for what should be a relatively comfortable victory at Ravenhill.
Teams:
Ulster: Adam D’Arcy; Andrew Trimble, Nevin Spence, Paddy Wallace, Simon Danielli; Ian Humphreys, Ruan Pienaar; Tom Court, Nigel Brady, BJ Botha; Johann Muller, Dan Tuohy; Stephen Ferris, Chris Henry, Pedrie Wannenburg.
Replacements: Andi Kyriacou, Paddy McAllister, Bryan Young, Tim Barker, Willie Faloon, Paul Marshall, Ian Whitten, David McIlwaine.
Bath: Jack Cuthbert; Matt Carraro, Matt Banahan, Shontayne Hape, Tom Biggs; Sam Vesty, Michael Claassens; David Flatman, Lee Mears, David Wilson; Stuart Hooper, Danny Grewcock, Andy Beattie, Lewis Moody, Simon Taylor
Replacements: Pieter Dixon, David Barnes, Duncan Bell, Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe, Ben Skirving, Mark McMillan, Olly Barkley, Nick Abendanon.
Odds:
Ulster 2/5, Bath 15/8, Draw 20/1
JOE Prediction: Ulster to win by ten points or more.
Munster v Ospreys
Munster coach Tony McGahan must be pretty content with his lot at the moment. His side are sitting pretty on top of the Magners League after ten games, they are not long off the back of yet another memorable victory over a major international (albeit understrength) touring side in Australia and now – after nine long months – they have their general, Paul O’Connell back.
Resting on your laurels is not something to be contemplating however, when facing into a double header against the Ospreys, the reigning Magners League champions, who will be armed with one of the most complete squads in European rugby.
At the moment, though, Munster look like a team very comfortable in their own skin. At half back, Peter Stringer and Ronan O’Gara have rarely been in better form; Johne Murphy and Paul Warwick have also been impressive, while Denis Leamy has had no problems on his return after a lengthy absence. Up front, O’Callaghan and O’Driscoll have been performing well enough to ensure that O’Connell’s return to the starting line-up will not be unnecessarily fast tracked and there are plenty of options in reserve.
Munster should have enough to win this weekend, but, given the conditions, a try-fest is unlikely to be on the cards. McGahan will be more than happy with four points on Sunday, but denying the opposition a bonus point would be a sweet result, especially considering how tight the margins will probably be on the completion of the pool in January.
Teams:
Munster: Paul Warwick; Doug Howlett, Keith Earls, Sam Tuitupou, Johne Murphy; Ronan O’Gara, Tomás O’Leary; Wian du Preez, Damien Varley, Tony Buckley; Donnacha O’Callaghan, Mick O’Driscoll; James Coughlan, David Wallace, Denis Leamy.
Replacements: Mick Sherry, Darragh Hurley, John Hayes, Paul O’Connell, Alan Quinlan, Peter Stringer, Lifeimi Mafi, Denis Hurley.
Ospreys: Barry Davies; Tommy Bowe, Andrew Bishop, James Hook, Richard Fussell; Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips; Paul James, Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones, Ryan Jones; Alun Wyn Jones, Jerry Collins, Marty Holah/Justin Tipuric*, Jonathan Thomas.
Replacements: Mefin Davies, Duncan Jones, Craig Mitchell, Ian Gough, Justin Tipuric/Tom Smith*, Jamie Nutbrown, Sonny Parker, Nikki Walker.
* – Final selection pending outcome of Magners League disciplinary panel appeal hearing scheduled for the evening of Friday 10 December.
Odds:
Munster 2/9, Ospreys 3/1, Draw 20/1
JOE Prediction: Munster to win and deny Ospreys a losing bonus point while doing so.
Clermont Auvergne v Leinster
Joe Schmidt returns to face his former charges in what is arguably the game of the weekend as the reigning Top 14 champions face off against the Blues in a repeat of last year’s epic quarter-final. Much is being made of the internal knowledge that Schmidt will have of the Clermont set-up, but we would venture that the French side will be boosted more by the absence of some major players in the Leinster line-up than Leinster will be by Schmidt’s intimate knowledge of the opposition.
Joe Schmidt’s insider knowledge of Clermont Auvergne should be a big help to Leinster
Without Brian O’Driscoll, Rob Kearney and Luke Fitzgerald, Schmidt will be forced into a backline selection that, although all competent individually, have yet to be tested as a unit at this level. Leinster’s form going into the game, however, is decent and had Jonathan Sexton been anything like his usual self, they would have taken a good scalp against the Scarlets last weekend to back up a run of results that has seen them climb up the Magners League table after an extremely poor start.
When the draw for the competition was announced, Schmidt himself described the fact that Clermont won the Top 14 after ten unsuccessful attempts was more like a gorilla than a monkey off the backs of the French side and hinted that it would bring about a shift in focus to the Heineken Cup this season. Schmidt’s sentiments have been backed up to an extent; Clermont have been something of a mixed bag domestically, winning six and losing six, while in Europe, they were comfortable victors over Saracens and earned a bonus point away to a Racing Metro side that are flying high in the Top 14.
Leinster’s back to back clashes with Clermont certainly have a pool-defining feel about them and if they can come back from France with a point and then do the business in the Aviva a week later, they will have gone a long way to securing qualification from the toughest pool in the competition.
Check out a video featuring the views of Leinster players Eoin Reddan, Devin Toner and Eoin O’Malley on this weekend’s clash here.
Teams:
Clermont Auvergne: (to be announced)
Leinster: Isa Nacewa; Shane Horgan, Eoin O’Malley, Gordon D’Arcy, Fergus McFadden; Jonathan Sexton, Isaac Boss; Heinke van der Merwe, Â Richardt Strauss, Mike Ross, Leo Cullen; Nathan Hines, Sean O’Brien; Shane Jennings, Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: Jason Harris-Wright, Cian Healy, Clint Newland, Devin Toner, Dominic Ryan, Eoin Reddan, Shaun Berne, David Kearney.
Odds:
Clermont Auvergne 1/6, Leinster 7/2, Draw 22/1
JOE Prediction: Leinster to come away from France empty handed.
Harlequins v Connacht
Connacht have hardly been in vintage form of late, with four straight defeats in the Magners League, but as regular readers of JOE columnist Johnny O’Connor’s column will know, they haven’t been far off the pace in any of those games and could and probably should have won at least a couple of them.
The Westerners’ early mishap against Prato in Pool One means that Eric Elwood’s side cannot afford not to take something from every game from here on in. The Stoop is no easy place to go, however and although ‘Quins haven’t been setting the Premiership alight this season, recent results have included a 33-point hammering of whipping boys Leeds Carnegie and a narrow defeat to the Leicester Tigers at Welford Road.
The new structures announced recently giving Connacht greater access to players from the other provinces and the establishment of a Professional Games Board have given rugby in the province a massive boost, but it might be asking a bit much for Connacht to round off what has been a good week with a win in London on Sunday evening.
Teams:
Harlequins: (to be announced)
Connacht: Gavin Duffy; Brian Tuohy, Ian Keatley, Keith Matthews, Fionn Carr; Miah Nikora, Frank Murphy; Brett Wilkinson, Sean Cronin, Jamie Hagan, Michael Swift; Michael McCarthy, Andrew Browne; Johnny O’Connor, John Muldoon.
Replacements: Dermot Murphy, Ronan Loughney, Rodney Ah You, Bernie Upton, Mike McComish, Cillian Willis, Aidan Wynne, Troy Nathan
JOE Prediction: Connacht to earn a losing bonus point in defeat.
Check out The Weekly Maul, JOE’s Rugby Podcast, Part One here and Part Two here.
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