On a massive weekend for the Irish provinces, JOE reckons that both Leinster and Munster will be looking ahead to a European final come Saturday evening.
The fixtures
Heineken Cup
Leinster v Toulouse Saturday 6pm (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Amlin Challenge Cup
Munster v Harlequins Saturday 1pm (Live on Sky Sports 1)
The previews
Leinster v Toulouse
The fact that Leinster and Toulouse are far from strange bedfellows in the Heineken Cup gives you an indication of the strength of both sides in Europe in recent years. Winners of the last two editions of the competition, the pair have met on four occasions in the last five years with the record currently standing at two victories apiece.
As it did for Toulouse last year, home advantage could prove crucial and the deciding factor in a semi-final that almost seems too close to call.
While the pedigree of both sides is undoubted, they have been under the microscope in terms of their form this season for contrasting reasons. Joe Schmidt’s Leinster side have been celebrated, and rightly so, for the way they have ripped teams like Saracens and Clermont Auvergne apart.
A backline that is as strong as it has been in years dovetails well with a pack that more than hold their own in set-pieces and contains some devastating broken field runners in the likes of Jamie Heaslip and Sean O’Brien.
Because of their displays thus far, the confidence that a lot of supporters have going into this weekend’s clash at the Aviva is justified, but they should be wary of the threat posed by the four-time champions and conquerors of the Blues last season.
Granted, Guy Noves’ men haven’t looked as invincible as other years, but the talent within their ranks means they cannot be ignored.
Leinster to right wrongs of scrum
Twelve months ago, 21 points from David Skrela put Leinster to the sword, but it was in the scrum that Toulouse wreaked major havoc. Cian Healy was withdrawn early after enduring a torrid time against Bernard Lecouls, while John Fogarty and Stan Wright also tried in vain to stop the rot.
This time around, the Leinster front row will be an entirely different animal, with a revitalised Healy packing down alongside hero of the Irish scrum in the Six Nations, Mike Ross, and man of the match against Leicester in the quarter final, Richardt Strauss.
That unit should at least achieve parity at scrum time and if they can and if the lineout can perform as well (and get away with as much) as they did against the Tigers, then the hosts will be on the way to a place in their second final in three years.
Unfortunately, given the stage of the competition and the sides’ familiarity with each other, we are unlikely to see a repeat of the thrilling spectacle that these sides delivered five years ago when Leinster won 41-35 in France; instead we can expect to see something more akin to the meeting between the sides at this stage last year, or even a game in the manner of both sides’ victories in the quarter-finals.
As it did for Toulouse last year, home advantage could prove crucial and the deciding factor in a semi-final that almost seems too close to call.
Teams:
Leinster: Isa Nacewa; Shane Horgan, Brian O’Driscoll, Gordon D’Arcy, Luke Fitzgerald; Jonathan Sexton, Eoin Reddan; Cian Healy, Richardt Strauss, Mike Ross; Leo Cullen (Captain), Nathan Hines; Kevin McLaughlin, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip
Replacements: Jason Harris-Wright, Heinke van der Merwe, Stan Wright, Devin Toner, Shane Jennings, Isaac Boss, Ian Madigan, Fergus McFadden
Toulouse: C Heymans; V Clerc, F Fritz, C Poitrenaud, M Medard; D Skrela, J Doussain; J-B Poux, W Servat, C Johnston, Y Maestri, P Albacete, J Bouilhou (captain), Y Nyanga, L Picamoles
Replacements: V Lacombe, D Human, J Falefa, T Dusautoir, N Bezy, Y Jauzion, S Sowerby, G Lamboley or R Caucaunibuca
Odds:
Leinster 4/11, Toulouse 11/5, Draw 20/1
JOE Prediction: Leinster to shade it
Munster v Harlequins
Munster are habitually used to being at the business end of another competition at this stage of the season, but given the epitaphs that were being written about them following the Toulon defeat earlier this year, an Amlin Challenge Cup semi-final isn’t a bad place to be whatsoever.
Given the scale of their recovery since then, it is no surprise that they are raging hot favourites for the clash with Harlequins this weekend, with the Thomond factor only adding to the uphill task facing the Aviva Premiership side.
Paul Warwick is a tad more subtle and creative than the rampaging Sam Tuitupou
‘Quins have a pretty miserable record away from the Stoop this season (only two wins from 11) in the Premiership, but they possess plenty of quality in their ranks and will pose a bigger threat that the leaden-footed Brive did to Munster in the quarter-finals.
Running threat
That threat will most likely come from half back pairing Danny Care and Nick Evans, number eight Nick Easter and Lions winger Ugo Monye, despite his alienation at international level. ‘Quins like to run the ball at every opportunity and if Munster play in the same free flowing style as they did against Brive, it could be an entertaining encounter in what should be excellent conditions in Limerick on Saturday afternoon.
Against Brive, the Munster back three ran riot and their backline will probably benefit from the introduction of the clever and skilful Paul Warwick instead of crash merchant Sam Tuitupou. Paul O’Connell isn’t quite fit to start, but features in a quality replacements bench from which you would fancy Stringer, Tuitupou and Johne Murphy all to make an impact if required.
Sure, Harlequins are young and fearless, but considering Munster’s form, their pedigree and home advantage, all signs point to a date in Cardiff in the Challenge Cup Final next month.
Teams:
Munster: F Jones; D Howlett, L Mafi, P Warwick, K Earls; R O’Gara (captain), C Murray; W du Preez, D Varley, T Buckley; D O’Callaghan, M O’Driscoll; D Leamy, D Wallace, J Coughlan.
Replacements: M Sherry, M Horan, J Hayes, P O’Connell, D Ryan, P Stringer, S Tuitupou, J Murphy.
Harlequins: Mike Brown; Gonzalo Camacho, George Lowe, Jordan Turner-Hall, Ugo Monye; Nick Evans, Danny Care; Joe Marler, Joe Gray, James Johnston; Ollie Kohn, George Robson; Maurie Fa’asavalu, Chris Robshaw (captain), Nick Easter
Replacements: Matt Cairns, Ceri Jones, Mark Lambert, Tomas Vallejos, Will Skinner, Dave Moore, Rory Clegg, Ross Chisholm
Odds:
Munster 1/6, Harlequins 9/2, Draw 22/1
JOE Prediction: Munster to prevail in a game with plenty of tries in Thomond
LISTEN: You Must Be Jokin’ podcast – listen to the latest episode now!
