In this week’s four-leg accumulator, we’re taking a punt on a series of selections that could have us positively rolling in the lucre, Denis O’Brien-style, come Sunday evening.
By Shane Breslin and Sean Nolan
Sunderland v Wigan to draw (13/5)
First, let us get our possibly misguided preconceptions out of the way. Sunderland are crap. They’ve won just one game in the past two months, and that was against a Bolton side that has fallen through the floor this season.
Then again, possibly misguided preconceptions form the essence of all sports betting, so we’re going to take the Black Cats on at home to bottom-of-the-table Wigan this weekend.
Poor old Wigan prop up the Premier League table with just one win from their 12 games, but they’ve been mighty unlucky over the last few weeks – and a trip to Sunderland, where there will be plenty of empty seats and where those Sunderland fans who bother to turn up will probably give Beefy Bruce a piece of their mind at the earliest opportunity, represents the best possible of away days for the bottom side in the table.
We toyed with the idea of plumping for Wigan at a tempting 9/2, but we’re going to play it safe and go for the draw at 13/5.
Neptune Collonges in place-only betting, Hennessy Gold Cup (9/2)
This one’s a bit of a shot in the dark. Neptune Collonges will carry top weight in one of the most competitive handicaps of the year, and he’s the undoubted third string of Paul Nicholls’s three entries.
However, there’s a case to be made that he represents excellent value in the ‘Place Only’ market. Okay, he’s not the same horse that finished in the frame in two Cheltenham Gold Cups in 2008 and 2009 but he might not need to be to run into a place here.
Nicholls has saddled Denman to win this race under top weight twice in recent years, while the trainer’s recent form is second to none – a 25 per cent strike rate over the past two weeks, better than everyone else, despite saddling more runners than everyone else.
Jockey Harry Derham is another plus. The young claimer – who was won two races and been second on another occasion in four mounts for Nicholls over the past fortnight – takes seven pounds off the back of Neptune Collonges, bringing the weight down to a much more amenable 11st 5lbs.
Sergio Aguero to score against Liverpool, (7/5)
Manchester City may have stumbled in midweek to Napoli but they are still imperious in the Premier League. However, that supremacy is about to be severely tested, starting this week at Anfield.
In the coming weeks Chelsea and a resurgent Arsenal lie ahead but Kenny Dalglish’s side, on an excellent run themselves, will be tricky.
Picking a winner in this one is a puzzle, with little between the odds on any of the three outcomes so we think the best value comes with Sergio Aguero.
Liverpool may be collecting points but they are conceding a goal a game on average and we fancy ‘Kun’, who only had nine minutes in Italy in midweek, to start and get on the scoresheet.
New York Jets (-9 points) to beat Buffalo Bills, 10/11
The simple facts are the Jets are 4-1 at home and the Bills are 1-4 away. It looks like a a lock for New York. But both sides are on bad runs, with the Bills winless in three and the Jets have dropped their last two.
But the Jets’ defeats were to Tom Brady’s Patriots and God’s own quarterback Tim Tebow. The Bills have lost their three by a combined total of 102-26 and they are sliding badly after a great stat to the season.
Add in the fact that these two played three weeks ago, with the Jets winning 27-11 and this line is way too short. Mark Sanchez, the Jets QB, is a bit shaky but the home team have too many weapons, and need a win too badly, to drop this one. In front of their home fans, Gang Green will crush the Bills and end their slim play-off hopes.
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