With just over a week to go until we meet Wales in Cardiff, two JOEs argue whether Ireland have a realistic chance of winning the Six Nations this year?
Conor Heneghan says… the giddy optimism of Irish rugby fans has often been wildly misplaced in the past (the 2007 World Cup being the prime example), but it seems to me a ridiculous notion to dismiss Ireland’s chances of winning the upcoming Six Nations before the tournament has even begun.
Those who would doubt our hopes of winning have ample reason to do so, of course.
We’ve only won it once since the tournament expanded to six teams. We’re missing some of our most trusted lieutenants in the shape of O’Connell, Ferris and Bowe and the loss of Richardt Strauss deprives us of the chance to see if he can be as explosive in green as he is so often in blue.
And it remains to be seen whether what happened against Argentina in November was a flash in the pan against a tired team or the sign of a hugely encouraging future led by a new generation of players.
So even with those doubts in mind, can we win the Six Nations? Of course we can and here’s why.
For a start, like the Grand Slam in 2009, the fixtures have fallen in our favour. One might question that statement given that our first game is away to the side that won the Grand Slam in 2012, but Wales aren’t the same team now that they were this time last year.
The Welsh clubs are struggling in the PRO 12 and none of them qualified for the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup.
They didn’t win any of their four games in November/December, a run which included home defeats to Samoa and an Argentina side who were subsequently hammered at the Aviva Stadium a couple of weeks later.
Out-half Rhys Priestland is injured and big players like Jamie Roberts, Leigh Halfpenny and Dan Lydiate will be rusty after recent spells on the sidlelines. With Warren Gatland tied up on Lions duty, Rob Howley will be the man in charge and his record thus far has been woeful.
A tough start yes, but it’s a game that is there for the taking, but where the fixture list really comes in handy is that both England and France will have to come to the Aviva over the next couple of months.
In fairness, both sides arguably deserve to be priced at 2/1 ahead of Ireland’s 7/2 in the Six Nations betting. Both countries’ representatives in the Heineken Cup look incredibly strong at the moment and both of them come into the tournament on the back of some excellent results in November (England beat the All Blacks, don’t you know?).
An Irish team will never fear an English one on home turf, however, and having not lost to the auld enemy on home soil in the Six Nations in 10 years, confidence will be high that we can turn over Stuart Lancaster’s side on Sunday fortnight. If results go our way, then Ireland will bring in some serious momentum to the home clash with France on 9 March and be well placed for our first victory over our Gallic neighbours since the Grand Slam year. All of this is terribly optimistic, of course, but certainly not impossible either.
Enough about the opposition though, because we don’t have to look too far from home for reasons for optimism.
There are a lot of players who seem to be hitting peak form at just the right time. Jonathan Sexton is the Lions out-half in waiting and has French clubs throwing big money in his direction for a reason. Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip and Rob Kearney have looked incredibly sharp for Leinster of late. Ditto Donnacha Ryan, Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray and Simon Zebo for Munster and Chris Henry, Andrew Trimble and Craig Gilroy for Ulster.
Luke Fitzgerald looks back to his old self and in what could be the most crucial factor, the great one himself, Brian O’Driscoll, is back and will be determined to show that Declan Kidney was wrong to relieve him of the captaincy and that he has what it takes to fulfil that role once more with the Lions in the summer.
Speaking of something to prove, Kidney himself has some doubters to answer. He was taken aback by suggestions at the press conference last week that this could be his last Six Nations, but it might well be if Ireland are reflecting on a fourth disappointing tournament since the Grand Slam, which seems so long ago at this stage.
Will Ireland win the Six Nations? It’s hard to say with absolute certainty. Can we win it? Why the hell not.
Declan Whooley says… it is now four years since Ireland managed to claim the Grand Slam and a repeat of five victories may well be needed to win the Six Nations this year. Unfortunately for all Irish supporters, we don’t look like we can repeat the trick for a number of reasons. And this is even allowing that this is, in theory anyway, a good year for glory – we play France and England at home.
Last season it was the Welsh that made it a clean sweep of victories and an element or two of luck is always required. The men from the Valleys began their campaign with a last-minute penalty victory in Dublin – thankfully Wayne Barnes got his comeuppance at the weekend – and that set them on their way.
Every team needs a rub of the green, but if we put this to one side and assume that the saying ‘you earn your luck’ will ring true, the harsh truth is that what we have seen from Ireland in the Six Nations since that epic day in Cardiff makes for inconsistent viewing.
We have lost six games in three seasons at a time when our provinces have been competing at the business end of the Heineken Cup. For some reason or another, we have produced too many underwhelming performances and the 2011 World Cup was typical of our recent inconsistencies.
Leaving aside our inconsistency, injuries (Strauss, Ferris, O’Connell and Bowe all currently sidelined) and question marks over Declan Kidney’s ability to get the best out of his panel, our rivals are gearing up for a big season.
The French clubs have decided to make a big effort in Europe this year and we have seen the power of Clermont up close already. Toulon and Montpellier don’t look half bad either. I’ll try and avoid the usual French stereotypes, but their squad is stacked with talent. A leaner Mathieu Bastareaud is back in favour, there is only one uncapped player included and they can afford to leave William Servat behind.
The 2011 champions England also have players and clubs coming into form at just the right time.
Saracens are a highly effective outfit, if not pretty on the eye, and in Owen Farrell they have a game changer. Just ask the All Blacks from the Autumn internationals. His temperament will be key to their challenge. Their pack is also looking formidable and in Wasps’ second-row Joe Launchbury, they have the only Amlin Challenge player to make the ERC long-list for Player of the Year. They will provide a stern test at the Aviva.
The Welsh are in disarray at club level – not one team represented in the knock-out stages of either European competition after a combined six wins from 30 games – and their Autumn Series was disastrous. However, it is a Lions year and they will be chomping at the bit for their first game to restore public faith in the team. And we just happen to be the first team up.
While Scotland and Italy will be expected to scrap for the wooden spoon, our encounters with those two have been more than a little hairy at times, with our last trip to the Stadio Flamini almost ending in disaster. A Ronan O’Gara drop goal two minutes from time saved our blushes, but we should take four points from both of those fixtures, although the number of tries may not be as high as we would like.
It is shaping up to be a closely contested event, perhaps the most finely balanced in years. It may come down to the bounce of a ball and an Irish outright victory is more than a possibility.
However, with my head ruling my heart, I can’t see us beating both our visitors to Dublin and that may prove to be our downfall.
For once, I hope I am proven wrong.
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