We try not to overreact to Week 1 and pick out a few winners for you in the process.
by Dave O’Regan – @DavesAdvocate
There is a very good reason why Week 2 of the NFL is known as ‘Overreaction Week’. After a very long off-season NFL fans have a huge amount of notions about how each team will do. Then, they watch Week 1 and it seems like everything the thought was wrong so they overreact. And, we’re no different. We are already bailing on how good the Bucs might be, it looks like Matt Ryan might be the best QB in the game at Atlanta and Dallas and the Giants might be way worse than we thought.
But before we chuck all that careful research we did in pre-season in the bin, let’s try and stay calm and stick to some basics we believe in. And hopefully win some moolah in the process.
This week’s treble
Patriots to beat the Vikings, 20/33
Seahawks (-5.5) to beat the Bucs, 10/11
Packers (-8) to beat the Jets, 10/11
Coming in at just a smidge under 5/1, we’re sticking with blue-chip teams this week. First up is the Pats to win on the road against the Vikings. Yes, Brady’s bunch lost last week but they very rarely lose two in a row. Admittedly the Vikes destroyed the Rams last week, and they have Adrian Peterson to exploit the running defensive deficiencies that Miami exposed in New England but I’m sticking with Bill Belichick to have his team primed for this one, even if I’m only brave enough to take the money line.
As for Seattle, I’m prepared to take them and the points every week until it fails. Tampa disappointed me hugely last week when they failed to cope with a Cam Newton-less Panthers. Defensively they will pose the Seahawks problems but the Super Bowl champs have so many ways to score that they should find a way to win by at least a TD, even on the road.
Finally, the team that was steamrollered by the Seahawks last week, the Packers. That defeat will have stung badly and I feel they will take that aggression out on the Jets, who had a fluky enough win over the Raiders, hardly the sort of form needed for a trip to Green Bay. Yes the Packers have been hit with more injuries but without Richard Sherman shutting down one side of the field, Aaron Rodgers will have a lot more freedom than he did against the Seahawks and they should rack up a high score.
Total points bet of the week
Atlanta v Cincinnati over 48.5, 10/11
We scored with this last week when the Packers and Seahawks blew well past the total and I think that these two impressive offences can do the same. Matt Ryan had a record day for the Falcons against the Saints as he threw for 448 yards and was 31-43, the most yards an Atlanta QB had ever thrown for in a game. And he was pretty nifty on his feet too when the Saints got near him.
The Bengals only scored 23 against the Ravens but that is a lot to score in Baltimore. With AJ Green and Giovani Bernard the Bengals can hurt teams in a number of ways and the Saints did put 34 on the Falcons last week.
Combined these two teams have huge offensive potential, so breaking the 50-point barrier should be within their reach.
Upset pick
Steelers to beat the Ravens, 11/10
We landed this one last week too, when we tipped the Dolphins to upset the Patriots. This week’s pick isn’t quite the same level of upset, especially considering the rivalry between the two divisional foes, but after the week of turmoil at the Ravens in the wake of the Ray Rice scandal, we have to go for the Steelers in the Thursday Night Football game.
Pittsburgh raced into a 24-point lead last week against the Browns before almost chucking it away while the Ravens never really got into their game with the Bengals.
Add in the fact that the Steelers have won the last two times they went to Baltimore and we fancy Big Ben to get us another underdog success.
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