Will both Irish sides go down in London or will hopes of a home finalist representative live on? Two JOEs debate Irish rugby’s Heineken Cup prospects this weekend.
Conor Heneghan says… Whatever your thoughts on Declan Kidney’s time as Irish boss coming to an end, it’s hard to deny that there’s a fierce whiff of negativity hovering over Irish rugby at the moment.
It was bad enough coming out of our worst ever Six Nations and having a squad that looked more like an A and E ward, but the signs since the provincial game has retaken centre stage haven’t exactly been promising either, particularly for Munster, who were on the end of a truly humiliating defeat to Glasgow in Scotstoun last weekend.
Because of the air of doom and gloom, there isn’t much confidence about the prospects of either Munster or Ulster ahead of their involvement in the Heineken Cup but, whether it’s hopeless optimism or not, I still feel that at least one of them will be in the competition come the end of the weekend.
The bookies are giving Ulster more of a chance than Munster and there is certainly logic in that outlook.
After beating Leinster at the weekend, they’re second in the Pro12 table, final standings notwithstanding they were one of the most impressive sides in the pool stages, their squad has plenty of depth and unlike Munster, they weren’t given a 27-point hockeying only a few days ago.
The Leinster XV was a shell of its usual self on Saturday night, but there were positives to take for Mark Anscombe’s men nonetheless. The Blues rarely looked like scoring a try on their own turf and when they did, at the very end, they were kept at bay by a heroic defensive effort.
In attack, Craig Gilroy, Jared Payne and Ruan Pienaar looked dangerous and Nick Williams continued to look like the human battering ram he has resembled all season.
Few teams would have been able to absorb the amount of injuries that Ulster have this season but they have coped reasonably well to date and with Johann Muller and Luke Marshall back and Tommy Bowe not far away (he could be on the bench on Saturday), they are looking healthier by the minute.
Saracens, top of the Premiership and possessing a talented squad, will not make for easy opponents but not many expected Ulster to come away from Thomond Park with a win at this stage last year and look what happened. Don’t rule it out happening again.
Admittedly my faith in Munster is more based on past exploits that become less relevant as the years go by but much like Ze Germans, you would be a fool to write them off.
Munster have relished upsetting the odds so much over the years that you would begin to suspect that they purposely put themselves in an arduous position in the first place and many of their loyal supporters will be travelling across the water this weekend fully expecting the men in red to repay their faith in them again.
And, despite a ridiculously inconsistent campaign to date and the sheer awfulness of last week’s display, there are reasons for encouragement.
For one, Harlequins are hardly setting the world alight at the moment, having lost their last two and three of their last five Aviva Premiership games. Secondly, the big man is back and while he might not be at peak fitness just yet, one cannot underestimate the influence Paul O’Connell has on the province.
If that alone doesn’t lift the mood amongst Munster fans, then the potential return of Simon Zebo should get them excited. The word on the street is he’s trained well this week and is definitely in contention and that is another thing Harlequins will have to think about.
I don’t think it’s stretching it to say that Rob Penney’s first season in charge has been a bit ‘meh’ to date, but there would be nothing to give it a kick in the ass like a Heineken Cup semi-final and a potential shot at the biggest prize in European club rugby, no matter how unlikely that prospect may seem right now.
Irish rugby has endured enough disappointment for five seasons already this year and we could really do with the provinces giving it a shot in the arm. Fingers crossed we’ll have at least one team to get behind by the time the weekend’s over.
Sean Nolan says… will Ireland have any teams left in the Heino next week? Sadly I really don’t think so.
Expect all sorts of London-related headlines to be knocking about the sports pages this weekend. But I have a feeling that on Monday’s sports pullout the headline ‘London Falling’ will be the most appropriate for Irish rugby.
Saracens and Harlequins stand between Ulster and Munster respectively this weekend and while we hope we’re wrong, we see the home sides making it to the semi-finals.
To my mind the best chance of Irish progress is Ulster so let’s deal with them first. Last year’s finalists are getting back to full fitness now. Stephen Ferris is a long-term absentee but another, Tommy Bowe, is rumoured to be making the bench for this one. However, I think this game may have come a week or two too early for him.
Prop John Afoa is only back in the country tomorrow after being back in New Zealand for family reasons and Luke Marshall has yet to play after sustaining concussion on Irish duty. Not ideal preparation for either but not game-changing either.
It will be the set-pieces that will decide this. Ulster’s line-out is the poorest in the competition while Saracens’ outfit is the strongest and the Sarries scrum might just have the edge too. Add in Owen Farrell’s metronomic kicking to Paddy Jackson’s slightly shakier style and the Aviva Premiership side have the edge. Any Ulster indiscipline will be brutally punished and that may be their ultimate undoing.
Munster face an even stiffer task on Sunday when they play Harlequins at The Stoop. Some Munster backers are pointing to the English side’s recent bad form (three defeats on the bounce) but the sight of Munster conceding 50 to Glasgow at the weekend means the formbook isn’t the visitors friend either.
But then you look at the presence of record points scorer Ronan O’Gara and the returned, and revitalised, Paul O’Connell and you think, there might be one more grand campaign in these lads.
However, if any competition is no respecter of sentiment or age it is the Heineken Cup. Driven by Conor O’Shea, ‘Quins will want to make their first ever semi-final and they have looked red hot all season. In the ‘Pool phase they were awesome, averaging 41 points per game, and running in 28 tries in six games. In Chris Robshaw they have a real contender for Lions captain and they love to dominate the ball.
Muscle memory and fighting spirit will keep Munster in the game for a while but they don’t have the weapons anymore to match what will be a brutal assault on them by a high-powered home offence. If either Dougie Howlett or Simon Zebo don’t make it back, they are in even more trouble.
This has been a year of transition for Irish rugby. We may be waving goodbye to BOD, Declan Kidney has already left the stage and our rising stars are only bedding in for club and country. To expect our provinces to salvage a fairly woeful season is understandable but unrealistic.
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