Fourth and longshot; JOE’s NFL bets Week 4

This is where the season starts to get interesting...

JOE

Fourth and longshot; JOE’s NFL bets Week 4

The bye weeks have begun, but we still think there are a few juicy bets to be had this week in the NFL.

by Dave O’Regan – @DavesAdvocate

Firstly, thanks to Dave O’Regan for taking the reigns last week, and picking the Cardinals to beat the 49ers too. I’m back in the saddle this week, and fingers crossed I can pull a few wins out of the bag for you too.

Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Seattle and St. Louis sit out this week as the byes kick in, while Miami and Oakland play in London. That makes it a tricky week to find bags of value, but we think we have found enough for you. As always, all our odds are courtesy of Ladbrokes.

This week’s treble

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) to beat Oakland, 20/23

Indianapolis Colts (-8) to beat Tennessee Titans, 10/11

New England Patriots (-3.5) to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, 20/21

Paying just a shade under 6/1, we fancy this for a number of reasons. First off, the Dolphins don’t really have a home advantage so facing the Raiders in Wembley won’t bother them too much. The shorter travel time will also help the Florida side while Oakland, despite last week’s brave fight against the Pats, might be the worst team in the league.

We saw last week just how good Andrew Luck can be as he led the Colts to a massive win over the Jags. Facing the Titans, who have a banged up Jake Locker at QB, this should be another large victory margin for the Colts.

While the Pats are still not quite as explosive as I expected them to be this year they are getting by thanks to their defence. I believe they will click on the other side of the ball this week, while Andy Reid’s play calling will probably do the rest to complete our treble on Monday night.

Total points bet of the week

Philadelphia Eagles v San Francisco 49ers over 50.5, 10/11

Should we just keep picking the Eagles for this bet? We think we should. With a high octane offence and an often high-comedy defence, Chip Kelly’s Eagles are a joy to watch, if you have them in a points total over bet that is. How their fans cope I don’t know.

The Eagles games have actually been going up in combined points, from 51 in Week 1, to 57 in Week 2 to 71 in Week 3. As for the 49ers, they have struggled to keep much weaker attacks out so far this year. A win for Philly, with lots of points, should see this bet home safe.

Upset pick

Bills (+3) to beat the Texans, 20/23

It is a tight week, with only three spreads over 4.5 points. Those three dogs (Tampa, Tennessee and Jacksonville) all looked nailed on to lose to the Steelers, Colts and San Diego so I have gone for the Bills.

Losing to the Chargers last week is no shame and I still believe in the Bills, even if the bandwagon is being abandoned.

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