Round two between the former champs and the hot new challenger. Here’s hoping we don’t get an early knockout.
50/1. That’s the odds on Barcelona to win 5-0 tonight in the Camp Nou against Bayern Munich. That’s what they need to do to overturn the 4-0 defeat they suffered in the Allianz Arena last week. Can they do it?
The bookies reckon that 98 times out of 100 they wouldn’t but what about that two per cent? What has to happen for that sliver of a chance to grow to a genuine slice of opportunity for redemption?
As is the case with Barcelona these days, it starts and ends with Lionel Messi. One diagnosis of the Catalan’s giants mini-malaise is the now total reliance on the little Argentine wonder to save the day. It is hard to blame the team for looking to him every time, as he pretty much was able to do enough every time in recent years.
But the level of help he gets now is more limited than ever. Alexis Sanchez is not chipping in, David Villa is only worthy of a run off the bench these days and Cesc Fabregas is off the pace too.
That leaves the burden of goalscoring all on Messi. In La Liga he has 44 to his name. The nearest Barca player to him is Fabregas on 10. No other Barca player is in double figures and they are running away with the La Liga title.
In Munich last week it was clear that Messi was not fully fit and that he was left too isolated by his team-mates. His super goal at the weekend suggests that he may be getting his old mojo back but the Athletic Bilbao defence is not quite at the level of the Bayern one.
Messi, a man apart
Ah yes, Bayern. While we all hope that Barca can stage some class of a comeback to keep us entertained tonight, all it will take is a goal from Bayern to really, finally, kill this tie. As we saw last week, the German side destroyed Barcelona on set-pieces and the arrival of Alex Song into the Barca team won’t shore things up that much, even with the addition of height that the former Arsenal man will bring.
We just can’t see this Barcelona defence keeping out the German team for 90 minutes and that is almost a bigger challenge for Barcelona than scoring four to take to game into extra-time or five to win outright.
One side note to keep an eye on is the Bayern players on yellow cards. Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Javi Martinez, Luiz Gustavo, Dante and Mario Gomez are all one booking away from missing the Wembley showpiece. Jupp Henykes has said he will play a full strength side, meaning at least the majority of those on the tightrope above above will start in Barcelona. The coach says he expects his players to be disciplined but an early Barcelona goal, or two, and the game will really heat up, and that’s when players can lose their cool.
If any team, especially at home, is capable of reversing a 4-0 defeat it is Barcelona. They may be fraying about the edges, and perhaps the mantle of Europe’s best team has already passed to tonight’s visitors, but they may yet have one sting left in the tail.
It’s unlikely, a two in a hundred shot in fact, but we won’t be betting against it.
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