The opening weekend of the Heineken Cup was a bit of a mixed bag for the Irish provinces, but we’re expecting an improvement in fortunes this time around. Well, for most of them.
Zebre v Connacht
Such is the gulf in class between Aviva Premiership table-toppers Saracens and Rabo strugglers Zebre that you would expect the Westerners to come away from Italy with an away win this weekend but if only it were as simple as that.
Zebre are still one of the weakest sides in the competition and were given a bit of trimming by Toulouse last weekend, but they have improved since last season when Connacht ended up on the right side of a closely fought encounter with nine points to spare around this time of year.
Connacht have had their struggles on the road in recent times and the addition of John Muldoon to a rather lengthy injury list has further hampered their preparations.
However, if their pack can be as competitive as they were last week, if Kieran Marmion can keep them ticking over as he did so effectively against Saracens and if Dan Parks has a good day with the boot, then we think Pat Lam’s men can claim their first away win of the season with a few points to spare.
JOE Prediction: Connacht win
Montpellier v Ulster
If you’re still thinking of having a flutter on the outright winners of the Heineken Cup, then you could do worse than stick a few quid on Montpellier, who are 22/1 to win the competition, odds which were reduced following their 27-10 win away to Treviso last weekend.
Quarter-finalists last season, they have already put Toulouse and Clermont to the sword by a combined total of 65 points in the Top 14 this season (their opponents scored a meagre three points between them) and have a raft of impressive players in the likes of Francois Trinh-Duc and Jonathan Pelissie at half-back and Georgian beast Mamuka Gorgodze in the back row.
To go to France and claim Montpellier’s scalp would be some statement by Ulster, who did what they had to against Leicester and have Ruan Pienaar back in harness with a confident looking Paddy Jackson for this tie.
Despite last week’s win and three out of five in the Rabo, Ulster haven’t quite hit top form just yet and this one might be a bridge too far for Mark Anscombe’s side. A losing bonus point would be nice, but even that might be beyond the Ulster men on Saturday afternoon.
JOE Prediction: Montpellier win
Leinster v Castres
The best way to describe Leinster’s performance in a Heineken Cup opener that had ‘potential banana skin’ written all over it was ‘business-like’. Well ‘business-like’ with a few flashes of awesomeness from Sean O’Brien and class from Jimmy Gopperth but business-like all the same.
Calls for Ian Madigan’s inclusion haven’t been as loud this week after Jimmy Gopperth’s display against the Ospreys
Despite being shorn of a few of their key men, the Blues will probably open up a bit against Castres at the RDS and though they’re coming off the back of a comfortable enough win over Northampton, Castres haven’t won any game on the road this season and could well add further credence to the cliché about French teams and travel sickness tomorrow.
If Leinster show up with the same attitude as they did in Swansea last weekend (and they’re streetwise enough at this stage that you wouldn’t expect anything less) then a comfortable win is well within their grasp and will tee them up nicely for the double-header with Northampton a little bit down the road.
JOE Prediction: Leinster win
Munster v Gloucester
Just like the aforementioned travel sickness that affects French sides, there are certain clichés in rugby that have a fair element of truth attached and one of them is that Munster tend to play well when their backs are against the wall.
There was a very un-Munster like complacency about Rob Penney’s side last week and whether he went about it in the right manner or not, the players needed to be told that the performance wasn’t up to scratch and no doubt that was repeated in what must have been some pretty frank team meetings this week.
The fact that Gloucester have made 12 changes (it won’t come as a surprise to Munster as it is a policy that was well-flagged by Gloucester coach Nigel Davies) should help them get back on track at Thomond, particularly the continued omission of Freddie Burns and Billy ‘36’ Twelvetrees.
It’s early days yet but Munster need a win to keep their hopes of topping the pool alive and a convincing performance to banish the doubts of supporters that would have cropped up again this week. We think they’ll oblige on both counts.
JOE Prediction: Munster win
Don’t forget to get involved with the Heineken Star Predictor ‘Get in The Game’ where you can put your rugby knowledge to the test by predicting the outcome of this weekend’s games. The top prize is a pair of VIP tickets to the 2014 Heineken Cup Final in Cardiff and there are other prizes to be won throughout the season. Click here to start predicting.
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