Which teams will do even better than the pesky bookies think? Here’s our selection.
Pre-season is now well under way in the NFL and the mind of the committed NFL fan/gambler will turn to which teams will be able to perform in the season. Sure, we may have a bet on the Super Bowl winner but the majority of the action in pre-season focusses on the wonderful world of the over/under.
It is simple really. The bookie picks the number of wins they think a team will get and you can bet over or under that total. But like most simple ideas, it is devilishly hard in practice. But sure, if it was easy it would no craic so here, after extensive research is part one of our predictions, the overs.
These are all teams we expect to exceed expectations, and hopefully make you a few quid too along the way.
Buffalo Bills, 6.5 wins (Over is 8/11)
For four of the last five years, the Bills have finished 6-10, (and the other was 4-12) so you would think that the under would be the way to go. But even with the team being up for sale as we speak, the prospects for the Bills look better than we can ever remember.
EJ Manuel (main pic) had a just about okay rookie season but we think he will be better this time around. That improvement will be largely fuelled by the fact that he will be able to throw to Sammy Watkins, the new wide receiver in Buffalo who can pull off amazing catches like this. And this. With hands like those to aim for, Manuel’s life is about to get a lot easier.
Manuel didn’t throw a huge amount last term as he had C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in the backfield, two explosive running backs who powered the Bills to the second most rushing yards in the NFL last year, behind the Eagles. Now the Bills have added two more decent backs in Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon, so they will be a real force on the floor this season.
In pre-season they look to be better defensively than last year and their schedule is average difficulty, leaning closer to easier than hard.
All that adds up to a seven win, maybe even an 8-8 season in our eyes. They won’t win the AFC East, but they have a great shout to claim second.
Philadelphia Eagles, 9 wins (Over is 8/11)
The ‘Iggles’ were 10-6 last year so why do the bookies think they will slip back? Well after going 4-12 in 2012 there is a sense that the Eagles overachieved in Chip Kelly’s (below) first year in charge, and that they are due to fall back a bit. I believe that to be the case with the Chiefs (more on them in the Under column next week) but not for Philly.
For a start the Eagles are in with Washington, the Giants and the Cowboys in the NFC East. All of those are projected to be .500 teams or worse, so the Eagles have a great head start with those six games. Add in home games to the Jets, the Titans, the Jags and the Rams and their schedule is not too tricky at all. True, it is harder than last year, and they must play the NFC West, the best in football, but achieving 10 wins again is definitely in play.
DeSean Jackson is gone to Washington, after his best ever year as a receiver but they drafted two WR in the first three rounds of the draft and one of them, Josh Huff, did this in pre-season against the Bears.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhSqRpA3nhc
Okay, he has a long way to go before we compare him to Jackson, but it is a promising start. The other high-profile name to arrive is former Jets QB Mark Sanchez, who will play back-up to Nick Foles. Sanchez replaces Michael Vick, but Foles has a firm grip on that start, being a smart proponent of Kelly’s hurry-up offense.
If I have one worry about the Eagles, it is in defence but their high-powered offense should be good enough to get them out of most of the sticky situations.
Tampa Bay Bucs, 7.5 wins (Over is 11/10)
Ah the much maligned Bucs. Without a play-off appearance since 2007, the 2002 Super Bowl winners were veering dangerously close to being a joke in recent years but I saw huge positives in their seemingly dismal 4-12 tally last term.
The Bucs suffered five one-score defeats, the most in the league and one of those was an overtime defeat to the ultimate Super Bowl champions Seattle. Their fourth place finish in the NFC South means they have a schedule that is more than capable of delivering them eight wins this year.
The big boost is the departure of Greg Schiano and the arrival of former Bears coach Lovie Smith as head coach. Smith’s Bears were defensive monsters and we expect the Bucs to tighten up their below average defence but it is going the other way that was the Bucs big problem.
Officially the worst team in the league, with the lowest total offense, Smith brought in his old Bears back-up Josh McCown (above). Incumbent Mike Glennon didn’t have a bad debut year at all and whoever is taking snaps will have a giant set of recievers to aim at.
Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Vincent Jackson all stand 6’5″ (and have been – shudder – called the ‘Dunk-a-neers’ by GM Jason Licht) so just lobbing it out there should work for the Bucs.
Darrelle Revis is the big off-season departure but he never performed in Florida and it will be in pass rushing, not safety or corner play, that the Bucs will be focussing on.
All in all there are enough positives here to see the Bucs hit .500. They won’t be taking a trip back to the Super Bowl this season, but they should gain back some respectability.
Quickies
If you are looking for a few more overs to pad out your coupon, we also recommend the New Orleans Saints (Over 10 wins 5/6) and the Indianapolis Colts (Over 9.5 wins 10/11) but not as strongly as the main three above.
I’ll be back next week with the Unders…
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