Less than a fortnight to go now, so we look at teams we’re backing to underperform in 2014.
Pre-season is now all but over and the mind of the committed NFL fan/gambler will turn to which teams will be able to perform in the season. Sure, we may have a bet on the Super Bowl winner but the majority of the action in pre-season focusses on the wonderful world of the over/under.
It is simple really. The bookie picks the number of wins they think a team will get and you can bet over or under that total. But like most simple ideas, it is devilishly hard in practice. Anyway, if it was easy it would no craic so here are the teams we think will fail to reach the mark selected by your local bookie,
By the way, we also wrote about the teams we think will go over the projected win total this season, and you can check them out here.
Kansas City Chiefs, 8 wins (under is 11/10)
First off, let us tell you we don’t feel good selecting the Chiefs here. Their rise from joke shop to serious contender last year was about as heart warming as the brutal world of the NFL gets and in head coach Andy Reid they have a real gent of the game.
But we think that the Chiefs will bounce back to resemble something much closer to their old selves this season. Last year’s 11-5 season was a superb showing but repeating that trick will be very difficult indeed.
They have managed to keep most of their roster intact (bar the very useful Dexter McCluster ), but it is a much tougher schedule that could undo them this term. As well as having to face the Denver Broncos twice in their own division, they are paired with the NFC West, so games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals are also on the slate. Chuck in a trip to Pittsburgh in Week 16 and they would have to be perfect in their other games to even get close to double digit wins.
Much as it pains me to say it, a losing record might be on the cards, so the least we can do is profit from it. Sorry Andy.
Pittsburgh Steelers, 9 wins (under is 4/6)
This is another tough call to make, as we know there are a lot of Irish Steelers fans around. But we simply don’t see them getting to nine wins no matter what way we slice it.
Last year the Steelers started painfully slowly before getting some momentum going by the end of the year. They ended up with an 8-8 record but the season felt like a losing one. We can understand why the Steelers are pegged at nine wins (tradition, reliability, fan base) but their off-season moves don’t inspire confidence.
Mike Wallace is gone, and in his place come two veterans, Lance Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Both had pretty dire seasons last year for the Saints and Colts respectively and we don’t like their chances of having a better year this time.
Ben Roethlisberger (above) is obviously a superb, and durable, QB but the denudation of his options (Emmanuel Sanders and Jerrico Cotchery are also gone) means his life is going to be even more difficult this year.
Another worry is the age of defensive linchpins Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor though we do like the look of their schedule, which may be on the right side of handy.
For us there are just too many changes in attack, and not enough in defence, to be confident about the Steelers and if Big Ben does go down, they are doomed to a terrible season. We’re backing them to match their 8-8 record of a year ago.
Carolina Panthers 8.5 wins (under is 4/6)
Oh boy, this one is a total lock for us. Before you ask, it has nothing to do with Cam Newton (below), who we genuinely think is a class act. But Cam has been left with little to nothing to work with this season.
Their top four wide receivers (Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn and Domenik Hixon) all left in the off season. Newton can still throw to tight end Greg Olsen but losing so many weapons is a problem.
Of course, Newton can make plays on his own but there are two problems with this tactic. The first is that his offensive line is also shorn of talent, with left tackle Jordan Gross and left guard Travelle Wharton both retiring in the off season. That will mean that Newton is more vulnerable than ever to a serious injury.
We saw a preview of that last week when a scrambling Newton was hit by New England in a pre-season game, resulting in a hairline rib fracture for the QB. Newton should be fit for the start of the season but if he gets injured, the Panthers may as well pack up and go home.
With the turnover of talent, the reliance on a more exposed Newton, plus the fact they face the Saints and a rejuvenated Bucs in their division, we think it is almost a certainty that the Panthers finish under 8.5 wins.
Quickies
If you’re looking for a few others then the Raiders (Under 5 wins at 8/11) is usually a reliable bet and the Jaguars (Under 5 wins at 5/6) is probably a safe bet too.
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