With some trepidation, JOE looks ahead to Ireland’s meeting with New Zealand at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday.
Ireland v New Zealand Saturday 5.30pm (Live on RTE 2)
There’s never a good time to face New Zealand, but it seems as if there could never be a worse time for Ireland to be lining up against the All-Blacks than this weekend.
Last Saturday, while Ireland plodded their way to a completely undeserved ten-point defeat of a plucky Samoan side, New Zealand toyed with Scotland, put up just short of 50 points and had removed most of their influential performers long before the finish.
It was a telling sign of where these teams currently stand. New Zealand, as they traditionally have been a year before the World Cup in recent times, look far and away the best side in the world and are playing a brand of jaw-dropping rugby, while Ireland have gone downhill since the Grand Slam triumph 20 months ago and are in something of a transitional period as they to attempt to change their style to a game more suited to the modern game.
Ireland clutching at straws
Much of the talk amongst both camps this week has centred on Ireland’s late fightback against New Zealand in New Plymouth back in June when they scored four tries with only 14 men. The Irish players are attempting to boost their flagging confidence by reminding themselves that they are capable of playing some fluent, attacking rugby, while the All-Black players are just delivering platitudes to their opponents ahead of tomorrow’s game.
Drawing on that experience for positives is a little rich from an Irish perspective, however. Sure, they started to play some rugby, but it was against a side that were already in the ascendancy by 45 points after 50 minutes and had long forgotten about the game as a contest.
As in that game, and against Scotland last weekend, the All-Blacks will be looking to win this weekend’s game early and the changes made from last weekend, if anything, makes them a stronger side than they were against the Scots.
One-hand offload king Sonny Bill Williams is on the bench this weekend
Sonny Bill Williams was the star of the show last weekend, but Ma’a Nonu is hardly what you’d call a bad replacement and he and Conrad Smith have built up an understanding in midfield over the years. The main men, Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, remain in the side, while the introduction of Jerome Kaino into the back row strengthens a unit that is probably the best in world rugby.
Not that they need any extra motivation for Saturday’s encounter, but McCaw will be loath to captain the first All-Black side to lose to Ireland on the occasion that he and Mils Muliaina become New Zealand’s most capped players ever.
So, do Ireland have any chance whatsoever of recording a memorable result tomorrow? The short is answer is, I’m afraid, no. Had Ireland delivered encouraging displays against either South Africa or Samoa there might have been a slight chance of an upset, but in both those games, Ireland looked like a side badly struggling in confidence and the All-Blacks are the worst side you want to be facing in that situation.
Selection problems
Declan Kidney’s selection for the game hasn’t helped either. For all his inexperience at this level, Mike Ross is an accomplished enough scrummager to have been given a chance an area where Ireland have been struggling badly. In the second row, Devin Toner seemed to have done enough against Samoa to have earned the right to start, but Kidney obviously doesn’t trust him enough yet and has instead gone for the honest and hard-working, but ultimately ordinary Mick O’Driscoll instead.
At half back, the battle between O’Gara and Sexton was always going to be a close call, but Peter Stringer has been in the form of his life of late and deserved to be given the number nine shirt. Behind them, Kidney seems to have gotten the selection right, but it would be nice to see a few moments of inspiration from Tommy Bowe and in particular Brian O’Driscoll, as both players have yet to impose themselves in an attacking sense in the November internationals thus far.
In fairness to Declan Kidney and Ireland, they are trying to develop a more fluid, attacking system that suits the way the game is going and although they have had some teething issues early on, that shouldn’t deter them from their path, even against a side like New Zealand, who are streets ahead in that regard.
Certainly, kicking the ball aimlessly back to the All-Blacks is the worst thing Ireland could do. Muliaina, Toeava and Gear destroyed Scotland from deep last weekend, so hopefully Ireland will look to keep the ball in hand, (*rugby cliché alert*) put some phases together and attack the All Blacks. Even though they’re up against a formidable All-Black back row unit, some big carries from Heaslip, Wallace and Ferris would be good to see and importantly, it’ll give the crowd something to shout about.
Without wanting to cast too grey a pall over it, however, defeat seems inevitable for Ireland at what will hopefully be a full Aviva Stadium, but a decent performance could go a long way to restoring confidence and morale ahead of the most important year in Irish rugby for some time.
Teams:
Ireland: Robert Kearney; Tommy Bowe, Brian O’Driscoll (captain), Gordon D’Arcy, Luke Fitzgerald; Jonathan Sexton, Eoin Reddan; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Tom Court, Donncha O’Callaghan, Mick O’Driscoll, Stephen Ferris, David Wallace, Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: Sean Cronin, John Hayes, Devin Toner, Denis Leamy, Peter Stringer, Ronan O’Gara, Keith Earls.
New Zealand: M Muliaina; C Jane, C Smith, M Nonu, H Gear; D Carter, A Ellis; T Woodcock, H Elliot, O Franks; A Boric, T Donnelly; J Kaino, R McCaw (captain), K Read.
Replacements: A Hore, J Afoa, S Whitelock, L Messam, A Mathewson, S Donald, SB Williams.
Odds:
Ireland 13/2, New Zealand 1/14, Draw 30/1
JOE Prediction: New Zealand to win by 15 points or more
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