This weekend sees the penultimate round of Heineken Cup action and while there are many permutations, we look at what is required by the Irish teams to qualify.
By Declan Whooley
Without delving too deep into what’s happened so far, this season’s Heineken Cup has been another impressive one for Irish teams. Ulster are one of the form teams in Europe even if they have been stuttering of late, Munster and Leinster are still in contention in their respective pools and Connacht in just their second season have already notched two wins, with a third expected at home to Zebre. But that does not tell the full story.
Leinster, the reigning champions, are on the brink of elimination and could well be followed by Munster depending on results this weekend. So what do we need from our sides for progression?
History would suggest that 20 points is the minimum that is required for one of the two available runners-up spots. Ulster claimed their spot in the quarter-finals last year with that exact haul and only twice has a team managed to qualify with 19 points since the bonus point was introduced in 2004.
The last time Munster qualified as a best runner up was in 2006/07 when they went through with 23 points, while two years ago Leicester and Ulster needed 22 points. This year it is looking likely that 21 will be required to continue in the hunt.
Ulster look to be in good shape despite their home reversal last time out to Northampton. They have 15 points and with a home match against Glasgow will look for another five points. They travel to Castres in the final game and it is difficult to know what the French appetite for the battle at that stage will be.
Munster have 11 points and at the very least need a win and a bonus win in their final two games. They travel to Edinburgh, who have been awful of late, and while a bonus point win is more than achievable, they will have to display more of a cutting edge in attack than they have had in recent weeks. A final tally of 21 points would put them in good stead. 20 and they will be watching other groups nervously.
Ronan O’Gara will be central to Munster’s attack in the final pool games
The situation for Leinster is a little more bleak. Back to back defeats to Clermont mean that the most the champions can now reach is 20 points, which is looking like it may not be enough. Considering they have crossed the line three times in four games, eight tries in two could be a tall order. Not that you would put it past Joe Schmidt’s side. It seems more likely that their quest for three in a row will come to an end this month.
Connacht will be battling it out with Biarritz for the right to finish second in Pool 3, no shame considering the blistering form of Harlequins in the group. Only once have they failed to garner a full five points and Eric Elwood’s side travel to The Stoop this weekend for their most daunting fixture to date. They will hope to finish their European season in style with a home win against Zebre the following week.
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