The video games industry is one of the toughest and most accelerating in the world, yet we think we may have the next 12 months licked with our bold predictions.
Nintendo 3DS will have huge sales, but software will flag
With an incredible first and third-party software lineup, plus the promise of glasses-free 3D gaming, the Nintendo 3DS is set to become the hardware launch of the year. While the original DS’ dual-screen gaming was a massive gamble that paid off tremendously, the 3DS will largely be seen as the most accessible test run of whether or not 3D entertainment is a tempting prospect for consumers or little more than a fad. While we have no doubt that the 3DS will post massive sales this coming March at launch, we have a more pressing concern – software sales.
The 3DS will be a lot better than Nintendo’s last foray into 3D gaming
With the DS coming to a slow end of its lifecycle and mobile gaming evolving and monetising at a rapid rate, there’s an argument to be made that gamer’s expectations of handheld gaming have shifted considerably. If Tetris is available for €0.79 in the iPhone App Store (as it is of this writing), would players really want to hand over potentially €39.99 for its 3DS counterpart? And what have cheap and cheerful titles such as Angry Birds done to gamer’s attention spans and approach to handheld gaming, let alone their attitudes towards what constitutes a reasonable price of entry? Already expected to retail at €300, the same price as a PS3, the 3DS and its software could face the same problems that fell upon Sony’s original PS3 launch – a product and catalogue of titles that players wanted, but felt didn’t represent enough value to purchase.
Grand Theft Auto will return
As much as we loved roaming the Old West in Red Dead Redemption this year, we were little surprised that no announcement had been made for the return of Rockstar Games other premiere franchise – Grand Theft Auto. Released in summer 2008, GTA 4 stands out as one of the top titles of this console generation, while the depth of its DLC content is unparalled on Xbox Live or PSN. We at JOE predict that while we might not have a GTA 5 release in 2011 (an already packed winter probably assures that), expect the first screenshots to leak in the coming months.
It’s a view shared by Wedbush analyst and GameTrailers contributor Michael Pachter, who said in a research note that GTA5 is likely to launch during the company’s fiscal year ending March 2012. Pacher wrote: “We fully expect the next instalment of Grand Theft Auto to be released by Q4 2012 at the latest, as the company’s contracts with the three employees most instrumental in the game’s development (Les Benzies, Sam and Dan Houser) expire in January 2012.” Don’t be too surprised if a return to Vice City is on the cards too.
Demand for Microsoft Kinect will fizzle out before it’s first birthday
There’s a lot to be said for how Sony sent out its Move peripheral onto the shelves, making a minimum of fuss and essentially telling customers “sure, it’s a HD version of the Wii – take it or leave it”. On the other hand, Microsoft’s Kinect has received a deluge of hype, much of it unearned, stemming back to the ‘that can’t be real, can it?’ jaw-dropping video of Project Milo, a heavily doctored tech demo which Microsoft eventually admitted would never see the light of day.
With arguably one of the worst and most derivative launch title lineups of any console or peripheral in history, enthusiasm for Kinect is largely getting by on hype and extensive advertising. However, unless Microsoft has plenty of unannounced, zeitgeist-defining motion titles that fully exploit the potential of its system, Kinect is in danger of burning out quickly.
After the E3 reveal of its titles, we at JOE noted that it was a dangerous move to ape Nintendo successes and release all its iterations of proven sellers at the exact same time (Kinectimals/Nintendogs, Kinect Sports/Wii Sports, Mario Kart Wii/Joyride), so they had better have a foolproof plan B up their sleeves.
Duke Nukem Forever will be released, but recieve poor reviews
Duke Nukem Forever has went through the very definition of development hell, first angling for a 1997 release and while still in development, bankrupting a studio, switching game engines constantly and facing publisher lawsuits in the last thirteen years. Now in the relatively safe hands of Gearbox Software, the Duke is finally set to launch in early 2011, while a multitude of press reports would have you believe that it could become a multi-million-selling title.
After 13 years in development, can Duke live up to the hype
Not us, however. Whenever a single genre becomes the dominant force of the video games industry, as first-person shooters have, they evolve so rapidly that new releases can seem archaic in the face of fierce competition, as Medal of Honor’s sparse multiplayer options appear alongside Call of Duty: Black Ops. With that in mind, does anyone really think that a 13-year-old game can really compete with the likes of first-person-shooter artists such as Treyarch Studios or DICE? We hate to be cynical and we’d love a swaggering, imaginative return for the Duke but much like the release of a Michael Jackson CD before the King of Pop’s untimely death, this is likely to be a bloated, dated release whose hype is based mainly on goodwill and novelty, rather than genuine excitement.
Wii 2/ Wii HD will launch Christmas 2011 (in Japan at least)
Considering its tech specs, awful online capabilities and dwindling software release schedule, it’s a wonder that the Wii still finds itself in the position of power that it has, or that its successor has not already been announced. With a relatively light Christmas library of releases (bar Donkey Kong Country Returns, was there any other must-have Winter title for Wii owners?), we expect 2010 to be the last full Wii Christmas, as Nintendo would be fools not to have a Wii 2 or Wii HD follow-up primed and ready for release in Christmas 2011.
As for the latest Legend of Zelda title, Skyward Sword? Considering series creator Shigeru Miyamoto has recently stated that Nintendo are only 50% through development, don’t be surprised if it reaches stores as a launch title for the console’s successor, in the same manner that Twilight Princess became a Wii title a few months before release.
LISTEN: You Must Be Jokin’ podcast – listen to the latest episode now!
