With St Nicholas Abbey’s defection, and subsequent ascent of stablemate Jan Vermeer to the status of warm favourite, Saturday’s Derby has a substandard look to it.
There is certainly no credible contender for the Sea The Stars mantle waiting in the wings, with none of the 12-strong (12-weak???) field bringing an unbeaten record to Epsom and collectively the entire field managing just 23 wins from 51 races.
Given that apparent lack of strength in depth, it is conceivable and even quite likely that Aidan O’Brien has had the two best Derby prospects in his yard and that Jan Vermeer will prove a capable deputy for St Nicholas Abbey when the stalls fling back at 4pm on Saturday. However, should Abbey have been passed fit to take his place, there is no doubt that Johnny Murtagh would have chosen him, so taking short prices about Jan Vermeer is hardly a sensible option.
If that’s the case, where should one look? Next in the betting is Workforce but Sir Michael Stoute’s colt was well beaten by another O’Brien inmate, Cape Blanco, in the Dante last month. The latter has been re-routed to the French Derby on Sunday so is at least inferior to Jan Vermeer in the eyes of the Ballydoyle camp. Where does that leave Workforce? Not for us.
Third best with the bookies is Midas Touch, another O’Brien charge, and he would look to be slightly more attractive than Jan Vermeer at current odds – by Galileo out of a Darshaan mare, he should be ideally suited by the step-up to a mile and a half and took the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial route, which has been the warm-up for a host of Derby winners in recent years, including his sire Galileo, High Chaparral and Sinndar.
However, he’s effectively third best in Ballydoyle according to O’Brien & Co, so it would paint the remainder of this generation in a poor light if he was able to win the Derby.
Rewilding was impressive at Goodwood last time but that was a Listed event, and a below-par one at that, so 7/1 looks skinny about the prospects of Frankie Dettori’s mount. The same can be said about Henry Cecil’s Bullet Train, who also showed a good turn of foot to win the Lingfield Derby Trial but faced a variety of decent handicappers on that occasion.
So now that we’ve ruled out all the principals, who takes our fancy?
Kieren Fallon takes a rare ride for Godolphin on Al Zir, who finished down the field in the 2000 Guineas. Amazingly, he’s the only horse in the race who was on duty at Newmarket that day. On the face of it, ninth place there doesn’t augur well for his hopes in a Classic a month later but Dettori eased him down when his chance had gone and he could be better than the bare form suggests.
Fallon knows what it takes to win the Derby, having trotted into the winners’ enclosure on three occasions, while the form of Al Zir’s third to St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy last October doesn’t look bad, considering he pulled hard that dat.
The feeling is that Al Zir could be over-priced at 20/1, so he’ll do for us in a Derby that looks weak.
JOE’s verdict: Al Zir (20/1)
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