Three men and a little lady are in the running for Fianna Fáil party leader now that the man from Offaly has stepped down. We scrutinise them.
As the year started, it looked as if Brian Cowen would lead Fianna Fáil to a crushing defeat at the forthcoming national poll. And then a couple of weeks ago it was discovered that an Taoiseach played golf with bankers (of the disgraced kind) and everything changed.
With Cowen stepping down as leader of Fianna Fáil, a new man (or woman) is about to take the top job at the party.
Three of the four in the frame currently hold ministerial posts in the Fianna Fáil-led Cabinet. One resigned from the Cabinet last week. The four front runners go by the names of Lenihan, Martin, Hanafin and Ó Cuív…
Potential Successor No.1
Name: Brian Lenihan
Age: 51
Current job: Minister for Finance
The Other Brian in the cabinet is a trained barrister, but he was always destined to end up in the Dáil since he has Fianna Fáil running through his blood – he’s the son of former FF leading light Brian Lenihan Snr and the nephew of FF battleaxe Mary O’Rourke.
He was first elected to the Dáil in 1996 but was passed over for a long time by Bertie Ahern, eventually becoming Minister of State for Children in 2002, then Minister for Justice in 2007. He was handed his current poisoned chalice in 2008, having been asked by the current Taoiseach to step into the role that Brian Cowen had just vacated.
On the plus side, the fact that Lenihan was never part of Bertie Ahern’s inner sanctum means that he can skip through the modern political landscape without carrying the weight of the legacy of that period with him.
On the negative side, instead he must carry the weight of being the Minister for Finance at a time when we’re in knee neck deep in financial doo-doo.
Lenihan is the man who has proved that it can be possible to have cancer without cancer taking complete control of your life (he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer late in 2009) and who had managed to keep a lot of people thinking that, even if Fianna Fáil weren’t the right people to lead the government, he was the right person to try and sort out the current financial crisis.
No one doubts he’s worked hard to address the poor economic decisions of previous finance ministers.
But his optomistic forcasts for the economy in 2010 made him sound like a man who was desperately hoping that if he said things would get better then magically they would.
And he did himself no favours within the party when he spent a week briefing fellow TDs that there was no chance of an EU-IMF bailout, when clearly that was exactly what was about to happen. Then when the vote of no confidence in the Taoiseach was tabled, his dithering did him no favours.
Chances of taking over: possible before the EU-IMF bailout, more improbable now.
Potential Successor No.2
Name: Micheál Martin
Age: 50
Current job: Backbencher, having until recently been Minister for Foreign Affairs
Cork South Central TD Micheál Martin is something unusual in senior FF politics in that he’s one of us. T,hat is, he’s someone with no dynastic links to Fianna Fáil grandees. Unlike the other three tipped to take over from Brian Cowen, the ghosts of his ancestors do not patrol the corridors of Leinster House.
He subtly threw his hat in the ring when he spoke about the need for Fianna Fáil to embark on a radical programme of reform, signalling that he wants to be seen as one of those who isn’t entrenched in doing things the way they’ve always been done.
He was initially elected to Dáil Eireann way back in 1989, and he had a seat at cabinet for the 14 years – a period that has given him a good chance to sniff around a fair few important government departments, such as Education, Health, Trade and, most recently Foreign Affairs.
He had an unwanted test of his ability to cope with terrible pressure late last year when he tragically suffered the worst possible kind of bereavement – the death of his daughter.
In recent weeks he became the most vocal senior TD to call for Brian Cowen to step down. When the no confidence vote was lost, Mr Martin stepped down as Minister for Foreign Affairs.
There’s a possible black mark against him relating to his reported reluctance to make a difficult decision when he was Minister for Health. And those loyal to Cowen won’t be big fans of him taking the helm.
Chances of taking over: high – he has a strong popular fanbase in the party.
Potential Successor No.3
Name: Mary Hanafin
Age: 51
Current job: Minister for Tourism, Culture and Sport… plus other stuff since the botched Cabinet reshuffle.
Mary Robinson, Mary McAleese, Mary O’Rourke, Mary Harney, Mary Hanafin – there’s clearly something about Marys in Irish political life.
The last on that list of Marys is the only woman on the list of potential Cowen replacements. She made her position on that issue apparent two weeks ago when she refused to give her support to under-attack Cowen on three separate occasions.
Mary Hanafin is the meek-looking daughter of former Senator Des Hanafin. She became a TD in 1997 and was a rising star under Bertie Ahern. She stayed at the top table when Brian Cowen took over, but was demoted from Education to Social and Family Affairs.
Like Micheál Martin, Hanafin is a former teacher and if she were picked to take over from BC ahead of the election, she would be the first woman to lead Fianna Fáil.
Chances of taking over: more likely to become the deputy leader under one of the other possible contenders. She didn’t exactly stick her neck on the line to publicly declare for or against Cowen during the recent no confidence vote by the FF parliamentary party.
Potential Successor No.4
Name: Éamon Ó Cuív
Age: 60
Current job: Minister for Social Protection… plus other stuff since the botched Cabinet reshuffle.
Ó Cuív is the most recent to put himself in possible contention and he remained loyal to Brian Cowen until pretty much the end.
As far as having the right pedigree to get the top Fianna Fáil job, you’d struggle to beat the credentials of Éamon Ó Cuív, who is the grandson of the man who trumps them all – none other than party founder, first Taoiseach and third president Éamon De Valera.
The Galway West TD was first elected to the Dáil in 1992 having previously been a member of Seanad.
Not suprisingly for the former Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, Ó Cuív is a fluent Irish speaker, and has by far the most fada over his name (three), which must give him a few bonus points (although the un-Irish use of a ‘v’ in his name might lose him a point).
He’s widely credited with getting the Official Languages Act on the statute books. Some people in An Daingean/Dingle aren’t his biggest fans, however, after he said that the name of the town couldn’t be changed back to Dingle, even if the residents voted for the change.
Chances of taking over: He was never one to push, but now that Cowen has tumbled, Ó Cuív might step up and can’t be ruled out as he has a lot of grass-roots support (although he’s something of an outside bet).
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