The hype surrounding St Nicholas Abbey fell flat on Saturday but Aidan O’Brien’s horse has suddenly become an attractive betting proposition for the Epsom Derby.
Before going to post at Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas, the first Classic of the Flat racing season, St Nicholas Abbey was priced up at a miserly 7/4 favourite to win at Epsom five weeks later.
There was a suspicion before Saturday’s race that St Nicholas Abbey would be much more suited by the extra four furlongs of the Derby, and nothing which occurred at Newmarket would alter that sentiment.
Indeed, a sixth place finish was respectable enough given that he could never really land a blow having been outpaced coming into the final quarter-mile of the Guineas.
There’s an old saying in racing which goes ‘Fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derby’.
You have to go all the way back to Generous in 1991 for the last colt to do that, but from a closer viewing of Saturday’s race there’s a feeling that St Nicholas Abbey is a horse who just did not have the pace to challenge in the Guineas and did not lose a great deal in defeat.
That sentiment is backed up by a look at the breeding stats: all three of St Nicholas Abbey’s two-year-old runs were over the mile distance and all of Montjeu’s progeny are better over further.
Among his top produce are Hurricane Run, who never ran over shorter than nine furlongs and won four Group 1s over a mile and a half. Authorized, Motivator, Fame And Glory and Frozen Fire were all either Epsom or Irish Derby winners while Scorpion was impressive over the 1m6f of the St Leger.
Some bookmakers have taken a cautious approach to the betting market for the Epsom Classic at the beginning of June but others, most notably Paddy Power, have pushed St Nicholas Abbey out to 4/1 and that looks like value.
There was no mistaking the uncharacteristic bullishness from the O’Brien camp in the run-up to the Guineas and now that it appears that a mile was on the short side for their charge, they will be leaving no stone unturned to get him there in peak condition.
The Derby’s second favourite at the moment is Sir Michael Stoute’s Workforce but regardless of how impressive he was on his only start last year, it was still a maiden and few colts in recent years – Shaamit is the exception who proves the rule – have gone from there to Derby success next time out.
O’Brien also has the third favourite in the shape of Jan Vermeer, but surely the vibes surrounding St Nicholas Abbey this year suggest he’s a good deal better than his stablemate.
Among the other contenders, I would have been interested by Elusive Pimpernel, who ran a very similar race to St Nicholas Abbey when staying on to finish fifth in the Guineas.
However, John Dunlop’s charge, priced at 10/1 by most bookmakers, has drifted out to around 30 on Betfair so there must be a doubt about whether he even has Epsom on the agenda.
All in all, the smart move is to go with the favourite to fulfil his potential with everything in his favour next month.
JOE’s ante-post suggestion: St Nicholas Abbey (Epsom Derby, 4/1)
