Another weekend, another half-dozen picks to lighten your form-study load on a packed weekend of sporting action.
Weekend Patent
In racing the main event of the weekend is the Irish Derby at the Curragh on Sunday but Aidan O’Brien has three horses priced at 9/2 or less, so we’ll leave that one alone. Instead, we’ll take a look at one of the big betting heats of the Flat racing season, the Northumberland Plate, which takes place at Newcastle on Saturday. Twenty-two runners will go to post at shortly after 3pm so if you plan to settle into the joys of Uruguay-South Korea, set the video for this big-field staying handicap.
The one we like is Richard Fahey’s Halla San, who was placed in the race two years ago and comes here on the back of a fine run in the Chester Cup two months ago.
He was beaten a head and three-quarters of a length by Mamlook on that occasion but the two-pound swing in the weights should give him a chance of reversing the form, and there’s a feeling that Newcastle’s more galloping track will suit this eight-year-old son of Halling. He’s available at 16/1 with Paddy Power.
It’s a crazy weekend of GAA, with All-Ireland football first round qualifiers taking place all over the country, three provincial football semi-finals down for decision and Galway and Offaly crossing hurleys once more in Leinster.
The main attraction is Dublin v Meath but with question-marks over everyone involved, this one could go either way and there isn’t a whole lot of value on offer. For betting purposes, we’ll have a look at the second of Croke Park’s Leinster semis and Louth’s clash with Westmeath.
Louth averaged approximately 2-10 from their seven games in the National Football League in the spring and impressed everyone in their win over Kildare a few weeks ago, when they put 1-22 on the scoreboard. A day out at Croker is another test but against Westmeath, who plummeted straight through Division 2 of the league and caught Wicklow napping last time out, Peter Fitzpatrick’s men can take Louth back to the Leinster final for the first time in 50 years. Take them to win by 4-6 points at 13/2.
(Click here for our preview of all the weekend’s football action in the provincial championships and here for our preview of this weekend’s action in the football qualifiers).
Offaly have proved to be a resilient bunch on the hurling fields this summer, fighting back to take draws with Antrim and Galway, as if to say ‘This is Leinster – we were here first.’
They won’t go down without a fight but as JOE columnist Sean Og O hAilpin said last weekend, it should be a case of forewarned is forearmed for the Tribesmen this weekend. John McIntyre’s men are no value in either the outright market or the handicap betting, which puts them eight points a better team than Offaly. They may well be, but I wouldn’t like to be taking Evens about it. A better bet might be Joe Canning to grab the first goal at 11/4. The big man has been a bit subdued so far in the Championship but he will have ‘goal’ in his mind any time he gets inside 30 yards, from both play and placed balls.
(Click here for our preview of that encounter, as well as Carlow v Laois in the qualifiers and the Ulster final between Antrim and Down).
A €3 patent on those (three singles, three doubles and a treble, total cost €21) could swell your account balance by €2177 by Sunday evening
Break The Bookie
This is the fun part of the weekend, where we try to turn spare change into the win of a lifetime.
In rugby, Ireland take on Australia in Brisbane on Saturday morning and irrespective of what has gone on before on this tour, this represents a great chance of finishing on a high.
The Wallabies have been awful in two Tests against England and Ireland have massive incentives to finish a disappointing season on a high. The list of injured players is as long as the flight home but the tour hasn’t been without its positives, with people like Tony Buckley, Jonathan Sexton, Paddy Wallace and Andrew Trimble all making a mark.
Scrum half Tomas O’Leary experienced a real low against the All Blacks in New Plymouth but if he can bounce back and feed his back-line, with Sexton pulling the strings and Wallace, Brian O’Driscoll, Trimble, Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney wider out, there are definitely tries in this Irish side. They must tighten up greatly at the back but they’ll be leaving nothing on the field at Suncorp Stadium. Australia are weakened by the loss of scrum half Will Genia, winger Digby Ioane and influential forward Nathan Sharpe so we’re going to push the boat out and go for an Irish victory by 6-10 points at an attractive 11/1.
(Click here to see how we think it will go down in Brisbane on Saturday morning).
USA, the darlings of Bill Clinton, have made a habit of leaving it late at this World Cup – they’ve demonstrated exceptional togetherness, coming from behind against England and Slovenia and leaving it late to overcome Algeria on Wednesday. Indeed, they’ve led for a total of one minute in the entire tournament – Landon Donovan’s winner against the north Africans the other day came in injury time.
We reckon Ghana will take the lead in Rustenburg on Saturday evening before Donovan, Clint Dempsey and Co hit back to book a quarter-final spot. Ghana to lead at half-time, USA to win at full-time is 33/1 with Paddy Power.
There’s no doubting which of the second round matches will be taking most of the spotlight on this side of the world, and that’s Germany v England in Bloemfontein on Sunday.
Lukas Podolski has already been amongst the goals for Germany at this tournament and we can see him exploiting the defensive weaknesses of Glen Johnson down England’s right. It’s sure to be tight but as a usual payback for England saving everyone’s bacon during the war we’re hoping that Germany can do the business on Sunday afternoon. For a genuine interest at massive odds of 50/1, go for a scorecast of Podolski to score first/Germany to win 2-1.
Have a tenner on those three and it could net you a cool round number of €208,080.
If you like the look of the number 208,080, here are five more pleasing numbers.
Alternatively, click here to receive a FREE €25 BET when you set up a new account with Paddy Power.
