Paddy Power’s quarter-final preview

As the world awaits the World Cup quarter-finals, Paddy Power picks out the best bets for the remainder of the tournament.

 

Well we made it through the second round without any major shocks. I can’t say I thought England were going to be hammered by Germany but looking back over their group game performances, it wasn’t all that surprising. If the rumours are to be believed, and I think they should be, then it was the egos of the players and not the manager which proved their undoing. We’ll probably have to wait for the players’ biographies to find out. They’ll probably start hitting the shelves in about two weeks.

There are other teams taking part in this competition so let’s move on. The quarter-final line-up was finalised in pretty dour fashion. Paraguay and Japan were a little paralysed by the realisation that they both had a realistic chance of going through and the draw was a predictable outcome. Thankfully, despite tipping up the draw, Spain managed to find a way past the unadventurous Portuguese. The woefully poor Cristiano Ronaldo was quick to share his internal suffering following their exit. You have to laugh really. Only someone as narcissistic as him would think we actually care. As my mum used to say to me, build a bridge and get over yourself matey.

With the guff filtered out, we’re left with eight sides which all deserve to be World Cup quarter-finalists. So let’s take a quick look at the betting markets we have left. The first one to catch my eye is the Winning Confederation market. CONMEBOL, which covers South America, is a slight favourite at 5/6, with UEFA a close second fav at 10/11. So it’s Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay against Spain, Germany and Holland. I know which group has impressed me most so far and that 5/6 is very tempting for a good sized bet.

Taking a look at the structure of the draw, there’s definitely some money to be made in the Name The Finalists market. Brazil should beat Holland, after which they’ll face either Uruguay or Ghana. Most likely Uruguay, which would be the trickier of the two but that puts Brazil in the final for me. On the other side Spain should beat Paraguay but Del Bosque’s side are still a little too sporadic with their performances and getting past the South Americans is by no means guaranteed.

Argentina and Germany is a very interesting match-up and one I’ve changed my mind on a couple of times already. So it’s possible we could have a Germany v Paraguay semi-final, making the Brazil & Germany at 15/2 and Brazil & Paraguay at 25/1 selections look absolute bargains. If you think things will be more predictable, then a Spain & Brazil final is the 3/1 favourite. It’s well worth studying the draw and seeing what final pairing you come up with, the prices in this market can return a tidy profit for a small stake. Having done the research you’ll then want to take a look at the Outright Straight Forecast market as well. The shortest price here is Brazil first and Spain second at 6/1. Again there’s money to be made if you get it right.

You can also bet on who you think will referee the final, which side will top their region and whether there’ll be a first winner or not but I’ll wrap this up with a quick gander at the Top Goalscorer market. David Villa (right) and Gonzalo Higuain top the charts with the eliminated Robert Vittek on four goals apiece but there’s a group of players on two and three goals still involved in the competition, each of whom could grab the Golden Boot. Villa, Luis Fabiano and Higuain top the market and rightly so, all three will fancy their chances of being in the final and as three of the best out-and-out goalscorers in the world, it’s a very tough one to call. Villa is 15/8 favourite but 9/2 Fabiano may have at least one extra game to overtake him. I’ll leave you to make your own decisions on this one but if there is one player you strongly fancy, then take a look at the Winner/Top Goalscorer doubles.

Okay, I’ve rambled on a bit today so I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a look at the first two quarter-finals. Until then, choose well and prosper.

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