Paddy Power’s World Cup Blog – June 29

Can anyone beat Brazil? No, is the answer to my question, writes Paddy Power in his latest World Cup blog.

 

I’m running a little bit late today so I’ll have to make this quick, is what I usually say to the missus. Okay, Bernard Manning impression over with, let’s recap on what we saw yesterday.

Slovakia, as expected, didn’t have enough about them to cause Holland any serious problems. Robben’s return did help lift the pace of the Dutch attacks and his ability to create chances out of nothing will be vitally important against Brazil, especially if Van Persie doesn’t find his touch before then. And he may not have scored but Dirk Kuyt showed just how important a player he is for Holland in setting up their second and in his overall display. They’ll need him to set the tempo for their defensive play in the quarter-finals.

Can anyone beat Brazil? No, is my answer to that question. Of course on any given Sunday, with the right kind of wind and one of the dodgy refs FIFA have deemed qualified enough to officiate in the biggest single sporting event in the world, or if Holland play at their absolute best, then of course they can be beaten. But they won’t. We saw against Chile how Dunga has his team set up to nullify the opposition and then counter-attack swiftly. Kaka didn’t score but he’s getting close to top form, ghosting past defenders and picking out the killer passes. When he ticks, Brazil ticks. And when Brazil tick, my outright bet on them looks a certainty.

The quarter-final line-up is almost complete with just today’s games needed to fill out those final two spots.

The first game in Pretoria, between Paraguay and Japan, is the most interesting of the two for me. The South Americans are a solid team with a decent defence and a very combative midfield. Up front they have enough quality to breach a defence of Japan’s calibre and are rightly favourites to win at 6/5.

Which means, of course, that I’m leaning towards Japan pulling off something of an upset. Keisuke Honda (right) is a threat up front and at 13/5 to score in 90 minutes, is a good bet to add to the two goals he’s already scored at this tournament. And no car puns. We have seen just one draw in the second round and I have a suspicion we could be about to see two today. This one should be tight and 1-1 at 9/2 is not an unlikely scoreline.

Which means that I think Spain and Portugal will end in a draw as well. We saw against Brazil how negative Portugal are and against Spain, Quieroz may send his players out with the same defensive mentality. The European champions certainly have the quality to win this in 90 minutes but this is as close to a derby game as you’ll get in international football, which brings a whole load of possible craziness into play. Hopefully that will mean we’ll at least have a few contentious decisions to enjoy. My heart hopes that Spain knock out Portugal in style, something like 4-0 at 45/1 with Villa scoring a hat-trick at 25/1. My head says this will be a tight, not so entertaining affair which will need extra time to decide it. 0-0 is 13/2 and 1-1 is 5/1 here. My brain has taken a seriously pickling over the weekend, though, so maybe my heart will be marking this one up as a win.

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