The odds in tonight’s first World Cup semi-final look stacked in Holland’s favour, but that hasn’t counted for much so far in this World Cup.
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It may be hypocritical of me, having cheered the decline of France in retribution for Henry’s handball in Paris, but I applaud Luis Suarez. At least Ghana got a penalty kick. In fact they got six. Oh what we would have done for a single penalty kick to beat France. Get David O’Leary back out there, he’ll just be wasting away in Dubai. It wasn’t to be, though, and Ghana sadly blew all their chances, at the keeper or over the bar, and though Suarez misses out, at least Uruguay are still in the mix.
The boys who do the numbers think their chance of staying in the mix is about 5/1 for them to finish off Holland in 90 minutes. That’s without Suarez, who is likely to be replaced by Sebastian Abreu, the long haired guy whose petulant chip knocked out Ghana. That was the only thing he did, though, so Uruguay, and Diego Forlan in particular, may struggle to create, especially against the depressingly defensive Dutch, whose cause hasn’t been helped by having the not-quite-match-sharp Robin van Persie up front. When the alternative is Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, well, fair enough.
At least they have Arjen Robben and though he is much like Chris O’Donnell’s portrayal of Robin, in Batman – irritating, petulant and the acting is terrible – he does bring some talent to the table. Robben’s skill with the ball could be the key to unlocking a wearied Uruguay team. It was a physically and emotionally draining quarter-final and if Holland control the ball and move it around, we may see the Uruguayans start to flag a little. If they do then Robben is going to create chances, most likely for himself. He hasn’t yet given up looking for that ‘I’ in ‘team’. At 11/2 for first goal he’s not a bad bet. Nor is Wesley Sneijder at 7/1. The midfielder is on something of a scoring run at the moment.
With only Forlan (right, in typical Uruguayan striker pose) as a creative force, it’s hard to see anything but a hard slog for Uruguay, hoping to hold out the Dutch and maybe hit them on the break, looking to Forlan for some magic. He came up trumps against Ghana and the way this World Cup has been going, anything could happen. Forlan is 7/1 to score last, where maybe he’ll take it in to extra-time and penalties.
Both sides are 10/1 to go through on a shoot-out and sure why not, Uruguay are 11/1 to win the whole thing. From here the odds look stacked in Holland’s favour but when has that seemed to matter in South Africa?
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