Potential wonder-horse St Nicholas Abbey puts his reputation on the line in Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, the first Classic of the Flat racing season.
The Favourite
When he goes behind the stalls at a little after 3pm on Saturday, St Nicholas Abbey will be attempting to emulate the great Sea The Stars, who won this race 12 months ago in the first episode of a dazzling three-year-old campaign.
Aidan O’Brien’s star has yet to break sweat in anger as a three-year-old but he is a short-priced favourite to land this Saturday’s Guineas and, remarkably, a few bookmakers are offering the same odds – just 6/4 – about him for the Derby at the beginning of June.
It’s no real surprise that St Nicholas Abbey is so well fancied for the race in five weeks’ time: he won the Racing Post Trophy, which traditionally produces the winter favourite for the Derby, in scintillating style at the end of last season, leaving supposedly high-class rivals for dead at the end of a mile.
The extra four furlongs of the Epsom race would appear to be in his favour, as he’s by Montjeu and all his two-year-old races were over a mile – the maximum distance for two-year-old pattern races on this side of the Atlantic.
However, with this weekend in mind it remains to be seen whether a mile will really show him at his best. He was hugely impressive in all three starts last year, and when he found top stride there were no horses in training that could live with him, but occasionally he took his time to find that stride.
The great unknown about St Nicholas Abbey is whether he has maintained or improved upon the level of ability shown last year. Horseracing is littered with dazzling performances by juveniles who failed to fulfil their potential at three, with O’Brien’s Johannesburg one example from recent memory.
Nevertheless, the confidence behind the favourite is persuasive. “We’re happy with all the signs so far,†said O’Brien last week in a statement which, given his habitual reticence, equates to bravado.
On both form and reputation, he is the most likely winner, so it’s just a matter of whether you’d like to lay down some cash at such a short price. All in all, the best advice may be just to watch and enjoy.
The Rest
One of those behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy, Elusive Pimpernel, is the likely second favourite. John Dunlop’s colt has won three of his four starts but was put firmly in his place in that Doncaster event six months ago so, irrespective of his taking performance in the Craven Stakes a few weeks ago, it’s difficult to imagine him overturning the placings without a disappointing deflation of the St Nic bubble.
Canford Cliffs, from the Richard Hannon yard, is another who merits a mention. He demolished the field in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last summer, streaking six lengths clear at the end of six furlongs. However, he was beaten over seven on his reappearance and there’s a feeling that the Hannons are taking a shot in the dark at a Classic before reverting to sprint distances for the remainder of the season if their charge comes up short.
Of the remainder, Awzaan is also unbeaten having won four as a juvenile, including two Newbury Group 2s. O’Brien’s Fencing Master is not without a chance – the Ballydoyle maestro has won the Guineas with less fancied second strings in the past, most notably Rock of Gibraltar in 2002.
If there is one who could be an option for each-way backers, it could be Godolphin’s Al Zir. He blitzed the field in his first two races, winning by a combined total of nine lengths, before finishing third to St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post.
However, he pulled hard that day and could be better than the bare form. Should he be cherry ripe first time out, and learn to settle early in Saturday’s race, he could go close at double-figure odds.
Conclusion
Al Zir could be the one for small-stakes punters but whatever happens, the headlines will be dominated by St Nicholas Abbey and the first Classic in his quest for greatness.
– Shane Breslin
