By Conor Hogan
Outright winners
Spain have an excellent squad (probably the best at the World Cup) but don’t represent much value at 4/1. Because of the long Spanish season, success with their clubs in Uefa Club competitions, as well as Euro 2008 and Confederations Cups they’ve had to play in consecutive summers, many of Spain’s players haven’t enjoyed a sustained rest in nearly three years.
Argentina were the best team at the last World Cup and are a better team now than in ’86
There are worries over the fitness of players such as Fernando Torres, and Andres Iniesta and it should also be noted that only one team has ever won the World Cup after winning the European Championships (that was Germany in 1974, when they hosted it), and no European nation has ever won it playing away from their home continent. If we put a tentative line through the Spaniards, then Brazil or Argentina are the most likely to win it outright.
Brazil are over-reliant on Kaka for their creativity, and he had a poor season with Madrid. Argentina were dreadful in qualifying, but have some outstanding attacking players in the form of their lives, such as Messi, Higuain, Tevez and Diego Milito. Many point to Maradona as a weakness, but it should be pointed out that his assistant is Carlos Bilardo, Argentina’s manager the last time they won the World Cup. They were the best team at the last tournament, despite going out in the quarter-finals, and have a better overall team now than in ’86.
Name the finalists
Brazil and Argentina are both on different sides of the draw, and are 16/1 to finish as the two finalists. However, two South American have only faced each other in a final once, when Uruguay beat Argentina in 1930 (Brazil v Uruguay in 1950 doesn’t count, as that tournament was entirely conducted as a league).
Holland were excellent in Euro 2008, hammering both France and Italy, before playing very badly against Russia in the quarters. Arjen Robben, who should be fit, and Wesley Sneijder were both outstanding this year in the Champions League. Other players in their side include Rafeal van der Vaart, Nigel de Jong, Mark van Bommel and Robin van Persie. I fancy them to beat Brazil in the quarters, while their semi-final opponents could be either France or England. Odds of an Argentina v Holland final (a repeat of 1978) are 28/1.
Golden Boot
In the eleven tournaments since 1966, the Golden Boot has never been won by a losing finalist, has been won by a final winner only three times, and a losing semi-finalist seven times. There is therefore (taking ties into account) a 64% chance that a losing semi-finalist will end up top scorer. As such, each losing semi-finalist has a 32% chance of taking the prize, compared to 27% for a final-winner.
Often players end up getting the goal they need in the third place play-off. My picks for losing semi-finalists are England and Spain. The most likely top-scorer for Spain is David Villa at 8/1. However, Peter Crouch represents excellent value at 33/1, as he is likely to start up front with Wayne Rooney. He has an excellent scoring record for England, and with a group that includes Slovenia and Algeria, he could have three or four before the second round.
Other bets:
Frank Lampard to have 17 shots or more – 4/1
In the last World Cup Frank Lampard managed to have more shots than any other player (13), but didn’t manage to score. I reckon England will play two more matches than last time.
Germany to win one of their matches in a shoot-out – 5/1
Always happens, doesn’t it?
Fun specials:
Any player to score four goals in a single match – 9/4
A player in New Zealand’s group might be worth a punt there.
South Korea v Greece to be the first match to finish scoreless – 15/2
It’s the game to avoid of the opening weekend.
All of Greece’s matches to finish 0-0 – 200/1
They just sooooooo boring.
Wayne Rooney to be the first England player to be sent off – 10/1
Only 10/1? Must be likely, so.
